Rising consumer preferences for healthier, cleaner, and more transparent products, along with changing energy market dynamics that affect supply chain cost structures, are driving the global edible oil market into a transformative phase in 2025. Particularly, the organic market is expanding quickly, while conventional oils continue to rule the market despite growing criticism for their effects on sustainability and human health.
Demand for Organic Edible Oil Is Growing Due to Health Concerns
The market for organic edible oil is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 9.9%, reaching about USD 3.69 billion in 2025 and nearly doubling by 2032.
A number of convergent factors are driving this expansion:
- Chemical-free, non-GMO, nutrient-dense oils that complement plant-based and clean-label diets are becoming more and more popular among consumers.
- A noticeable trend is the preference for cold-pressed and unrefined oils, which are prized for maintaining their natural flavor and nutritional value without undergoing extensive processing.
- Particularly in high-end international markets, certifications such as USDA Organic, EU Organic, and JAS are now necessary for market access.
- Organic flaxseed, avocado, coconut, and olive oils are becoming more popular, especially with younger, health-conscious consumers.
- Transparency and innovative packaging improve consumer trust and value perception.
Traditional Edible Oils Continue to Be Market Mainstays
Conventional edible oils and fats continue to be the mainstay of the market, despite the organic industry's explosive growth. This segment is expected to grow steadily at a 5.9% CAGR through 2034, from its 2024 valuation of USD 551.7 billion. It is anticipated that the total value of edible oils and fats will reach USD 138 billion by 2025 and USD 261.5 billion by 2035.
Because they are widely available and reasonably priced, leading oils like canola, soybean, sunflower, and palm oil dominate in volume. Buyer expectations are changing, though, due to growing scrutiny of sustainability—especially with regard to deforestation—and health issues. As a result, market players are striking a balance between sustainability pledges, ethical sourcing, and cost effectiveness.
Changes in the Energy Market Affect Supply Chain Prices
The cost environment of the edible oil market is changing as a result of broader energy sector dynamics. In order to stabilize oil prices and prevent cycles of oversupply, OPEC has strategically decided to postpone production increases until at least March 2025 and extend production cuts until September 2026. A cautious approach is reflected in the incremental return of roughly 120,000 barrels per day with contributions from the UAE.
This strategy's main results include: stabilized inventories and successfully eliminated projected oil surpluses for 2025, which helped to offset pessimistic market sentiments.
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Asia's growing energy needs are the main driver of the world's oil demand's slow but steady growth.
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Long-term worries about underinvestment because maintaining output levels close to 100 million barrels per day necessitates yearly investments of about USD 550 billion, which are not yet being made.
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The resilience of oil consumption even during the COVID-19 lockdowns in April 2020 and its ongoing demand, which is close to 104 million barrels per day today, demonstrate the deep systemic integration of oil.
Because edible oils rely on fossil fuels for processing and transportation, these energy market factors influence their pricing and availability trends. Market players must therefore take into account both consumer-focused trends and these macroeconomic factors.
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