What Traders and Buyers Should Know About Global Cocoa Insights

Cocoa powder, which comes from cocoa beans, is often used in drinks, baked goods, candy, and cosmetics. Ghana and the Ivory Coast are where most of the world's cocoa powder comes from. But by 2025, the cocoa environment around the world will be anything but stable. The cocoa market is going through a revolution that everyone involved needs to pay attention to. It includes changes in how sales are made, problems with quality, and shifts in trade between countries.

West Africa Holds Back: A Risky but Smart Bet

To take advantage of record-high cocoa prices, regulators in both Ivory Coast and Ghana have cut back on forward bean sales for the 2025–2026 season.

In the past, these countries sold most of their cocoa crop ahead of time to keep farmers' incomes stable and make sure there was always enough cocoa around the world. That plan turned out to be expensive in 2024, when prices shot up after contracts had already been signed at lower rates. The plan for this year has changed:

• Ivory Coast has sold less than 400,000 tons so far, down from 1.45 million tons at this time last year.

• Ghana has sold about 100,000 tons, which is less than the usual 500,000 tons.

Both countries are betting that global supply will stay tight by not signing forward contracts. This will let them make spot deals with higher margins later in the season.

Are the numbers of arrivals telling the whole story?

Reuters says that on June 29, 2025, Côte d'Ivoire received a total of 1.613 million tons of cocoa. This was a small 1.1% increase from the previous year. This looks like it means stability, but a lot of analysts don't trust the data.

Important Issues:

• Poor Bean Quality: Reports say that some exporters take beans that are lower quality than others, which could lead to double counting.

• Assumptions about truck weight: Port data often depends on estimates of truck capacity, which can make deliveries look bigger than they really are.

• Broken Export Chain: If rejected shipments are treated differently, it can throw off the total arrival numbers.

Because of this, arrival numbers may no longer be a reliable way to measure real output, which makes it hard for traders and producers to make smart decisions.

Effect on the Supply Chain: Upcoming Volatility

These changes present significant obstacles for chocolate producers, distributors, and food processors. The complexity of Q3 and Q4 pricing hedging, inventory strategies, and procurement planning has increased. As futures liquidity is decreasing and spot market volatility is rising, many buyers are

• Reassessing sourcing tactics

• The diversity of suppliers is growing.

• Dependence on real-time port and crop quality updates is growing.

Indonesia Enters the Picture: A Growing Exporter of Cocoa

Indonesia is emerging as a new cocoa market powerhouse amid the unpredictability of West Africa. Plans to expand domestic cocoa production and expand into unconventional export markets, especially Belarus, were recently announced by President Prabowo Subianto.

For buyers seeking steady supply from various sources, this endeavor opens up new possibilities. With the support of government initiatives, Indonesia could emerge as a major player in the years to come, especially for manufacturers looking to enter Eastern European markets or hedge regional risks.

Things to Keep an Eye on at the Cocoa Market

Stakeholders should focus on the following to navigate this shifting landscape:

• Ghanaian and Côte d'Ivoire weather developments that are significant for mid-crop results

• Reports on mid-crop quality and port-side data.

• Project sales trends and contract volumes in the major manufacturing nations.

• Diplomatic efforts and trade policies with cocoa-producing regions.